Rebalancing the New Spells - a deep dive
With the new Wizards of Morcar releasing next year, I'm sure a lot of us are hoping the designers made some adjustments to the new selectable spells and the spells used by the enemy wizards. However, what few images we have seen make it appear that there are not many changes coming, aside from possibly matching the rules of some of the evil wizard spells to the Dread spells of the same names from the original US core set. While I'm certainly excited to see more details of the new expansion as they are revealed, I've had a lot of time to think about what house rule changes I would make to these spells if no significant changes are made by Avalon Hill. The things I generally value in a house rule for HQ are: balanced effects that are neither useless nor overpowered, consistency between similar spells and effects across expansions, and avoiding game-breaking edge cases. I'm also a person who does a lot of probability and statistical analysis for a living, so I invite you all to come with me on a waaaaaaay too deep dive into each group of spells in this expansion (which I will do separately to avoid making one titanic post), starting with the Darkness spells.
Arrows of the Night is the spell that originally prompted me to go down this rabbit hole. While it is a unique asset as an attack spell that forces the enemies to defend with their mind points, most veteran players seem to regard it as underpowered. There are ways we can measure exactly how powerful a spell really is based on how much damage it can be expected to deal, but it's not as simple as one might think. Take the most straightforward attack spells as an example: Fire of Wrath and Ball of Flame. Fire of Wrath is very simple, right? It deals 1BP of damage which the target has a 1/3 chance of blocking, so its expected damage output is 2/3 or 0.67. Ball of Flame deals 2BP which can each be blocked like Fire of Wrath, so its value should be twice that of Fire of Wrath or 1.33, right? Not so fast. What if you are playing the UK version of HeroQuest? Unless you're casting it on some kind of unique boss enemy, the monsters there only have 1BP to lose so the value of the spell has a cap. If you do the math this capped value comes out to 0.89, which is essentially the "kill probability" of a Ball of Flame spell in that system. But in the US system some monsters do have multiple body points, so Ball of Flame becomes more valuable. If you average it across all the monsters available in the core game system, its value increases to 1.04. Add in the new monsters that Avalon Hill is including in the new version of the Wizards of Morcar expansion and you further increase its value to 1.09. What about a more complex spell like Genie, where you have to consider the DD of each type of monster you might use it on? I'll spare you the trouble of reading through all my spreadsheets, but between the multiple BP of core set monsters and Avalon Hill adding some beefy new threats like the Minotaur and Golem, Genie goes from 0.90 in the old UK days to 1.23, a 0.33BP difference.
Now we come back to Arrows of the Night. Despite being considered underpowered, we have to remember that it was designed for use with the UK system where even the weakest attack could kill any monster with a lucky roll. If you do the math, the value of Arrows of the Night using its existing rules in the UK system was 0.63: weaker than Fire of Wrath, but not by much. Combined with the other spells in the Darkness group, that might have made it useful enough to get picked in the UK system. The problem is that when you move it into the US system, it doesn't scale well. Its value only increases to 0.69, which doesn't cut it any more. In order to retain its usefulness, it should scale by as much value as the Genie spell, because the Air group is similar in structure to the Darkness group (one attack spell, one "miss a turn" type of spell, and one other spell). So the desired value of Arrows of the Night in the new expansion would be 0.63+0.33=0.96. I experimented with some alternate rules for this spell, but it turns out that if you simply give it a third attack die, its value becomes 0.95 which is extremely close to ideal. I know some others have proposed an approach like making the target defend against a fixed 2BP hit instead of rolling attack dice. This would raise the value to 1.26, which is even more powerful than Genie and probably makes the Darkness group overpowered when you add the utility of Cloak of Shadows vs. Swift Wind. Using 3AD also fits for a few qualitative reasons as well. The card image shows three arrows being fired, not two. The one standard weapon that fires arrows (the crossbow) also uses 3AD. Avalon Hill's inclusion of the Golem provides a new monster with 3BP and 0MP, so giving this spell just enough extra power to have a slight chance of one-shotting a big target that can't defend against it. The third AD also adds enough utility to make it worth using on the occasional Dread Warrior or Gargoyle instead of only undead enemies.
TL;DR: change it from 2AD to 3AD and you're good.
Chains of Darkness is probably fine the way it is. Discount brand Tempest is still a really good spell.
Cloak of Shadows is also probably good as it is, as long as Zargon is good at reasoning through a lot of complicated situations it can create. Do you let heroes fire through it to hit monsters on the other side if they're not actually inside the cloak? Will you allow a character who can see in darkness (e.g. Crown of Shadows) to be immune to its effects? The only real problem with this spell is if the heroes cast it in a place that renders the quest unfinishable due to its permanence. If the goal of the quest is to find a special treasure, casting this spell in that room might make finding the treasure impossible. A boss the heroes are trying to kill could hide in the cloak and not come out. On the one hand, making this spell such a dangerous double-edged sword might be a feature and not a bug. On the other hand, the easy way to avoid this is to make the cloak wear off after some period of time, preferable one sufficiently long enough that whatever confrontations might be taking place in the cloak's proximity can resolve themselves. I would avoid making it dismissible by the caster, because the cloak is so absolutely powerful that allowing the caster to turn it off whenever they want would be ripe for abuse (e.g. cast it right before Zargon's turn, monsters can't do anything on their turn, then turn it off so the heroes can attack).
Arrows of the Night is the spell that originally prompted me to go down this rabbit hole. While it is a unique asset as an attack spell that forces the enemies to defend with their mind points, most veteran players seem to regard it as underpowered. There are ways we can measure exactly how powerful a spell really is based on how much damage it can be expected to deal, but it's not as simple as one might think. Take the most straightforward attack spells as an example: Fire of Wrath and Ball of Flame. Fire of Wrath is very simple, right? It deals 1BP of damage which the target has a 1/3 chance of blocking, so its expected damage output is 2/3 or 0.67. Ball of Flame deals 2BP which can each be blocked like Fire of Wrath, so its value should be twice that of Fire of Wrath or 1.33, right? Not so fast. What if you are playing the UK version of HeroQuest? Unless you're casting it on some kind of unique boss enemy, the monsters there only have 1BP to lose so the value of the spell has a cap. If you do the math this capped value comes out to 0.89, which is essentially the "kill probability" of a Ball of Flame spell in that system. But in the US system some monsters do have multiple body points, so Ball of Flame becomes more valuable. If you average it across all the monsters available in the core game system, its value increases to 1.04. Add in the new monsters that Avalon Hill is including in the new version of the Wizards of Morcar expansion and you further increase its value to 1.09. What about a more complex spell like Genie, where you have to consider the DD of each type of monster you might use it on? I'll spare you the trouble of reading through all my spreadsheets, but between the multiple BP of core set monsters and Avalon Hill adding some beefy new threats like the Minotaur and Golem, Genie goes from 0.90 in the old UK days to 1.23, a 0.33BP difference.
Now we come back to Arrows of the Night. Despite being considered underpowered, we have to remember that it was designed for use with the UK system where even the weakest attack could kill any monster with a lucky roll. If you do the math, the value of Arrows of the Night using its existing rules in the UK system was 0.63: weaker than Fire of Wrath, but not by much. Combined with the other spells in the Darkness group, that might have made it useful enough to get picked in the UK system. The problem is that when you move it into the US system, it doesn't scale well. Its value only increases to 0.69, which doesn't cut it any more. In order to retain its usefulness, it should scale by as much value as the Genie spell, because the Air group is similar in structure to the Darkness group (one attack spell, one "miss a turn" type of spell, and one other spell). So the desired value of Arrows of the Night in the new expansion would be 0.63+0.33=0.96. I experimented with some alternate rules for this spell, but it turns out that if you simply give it a third attack die, its value becomes 0.95 which is extremely close to ideal. I know some others have proposed an approach like making the target defend against a fixed 2BP hit instead of rolling attack dice. This would raise the value to 1.26, which is even more powerful than Genie and probably makes the Darkness group overpowered when you add the utility of Cloak of Shadows vs. Swift Wind. Using 3AD also fits for a few qualitative reasons as well. The card image shows three arrows being fired, not two. The one standard weapon that fires arrows (the crossbow) also uses 3AD. Avalon Hill's inclusion of the Golem provides a new monster with 3BP and 0MP, so giving this spell just enough extra power to have a slight chance of one-shotting a big target that can't defend against it. The third AD also adds enough utility to make it worth using on the occasional Dread Warrior or Gargoyle instead of only undead enemies.
TL;DR: change it from 2AD to 3AD and you're good.
Chains of Darkness is probably fine the way it is. Discount brand Tempest is still a really good spell.
Cloak of Shadows is also probably good as it is, as long as Zargon is good at reasoning through a lot of complicated situations it can create. Do you let heroes fire through it to hit monsters on the other side if they're not actually inside the cloak? Will you allow a character who can see in darkness (e.g. Crown of Shadows) to be immune to its effects? The only real problem with this spell is if the heroes cast it in a place that renders the quest unfinishable due to its permanence. If the goal of the quest is to find a special treasure, casting this spell in that room might make finding the treasure impossible. A boss the heroes are trying to kill could hide in the cloak and not come out. On the one hand, making this spell such a dangerous double-edged sword might be a feature and not a bug. On the other hand, the easy way to avoid this is to make the cloak wear off after some period of time, preferable one sufficiently long enough that whatever confrontations might be taking place in the cloak's proximity can resolve themselves. I would avoid making it dismissible by the caster, because the cloak is so absolutely powerful that allowing the caster to turn it off whenever they want would be ripe for abuse (e.g. cast it right before Zargon's turn, monsters can't do anything on their turn, then turn it off so the heroes can attack).
