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Crazy Thought Experiment/Logic Problem

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Re: Crazy Thought Experiment/Logic Problem

Postby knightkrawler » Friday July 1st, 2016 10:30am

Gold Bearer wrote:In the distant future somebody puts two boxes in front of you (you're on a gameshow if you like). Box A contains one thousand galactic credits, box B either contains one hundred or one million galactic credits. You have two choices, you can have both boxes or just box B, but there's a catch. An advanced behavioural prediction computer program that's never been wrong has worked out what option you're going to choose. If it worked out that you were going to take both boxes then box B contains one hundred galactic credits, if it worked out that you were only going to take ox B then box B contains one million galactic credits.

A = 1000
B = 100 or 1,000,000

Both or just B? Decide! :)

This cuts right to the heart of how you believe the universe works.


1) I assume I'm told what A contains and what B might contain.
2) I assume I'm also told that that program has already worked out what I'm gonna choose.
I thereby assume that it has worked out that I'm the kind of guy choosing B because of point 1, so there's 1,000,000 galactic credits in it.
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Re: Crazy Thought Experiment/Logic Problem

Postby cynthialee » Friday July 1st, 2016 11:26am

I can always find a way to randomize as far as my perception is concerned.
I may decide to look at the tiny hair on my finger and if it is odd I choose one way or if it is even I choose the other. Maybe I make the choice based on what is the color of the hosts eyes, if one color I choose one way and if another color I go with the other option.
I can always find a way to bring random into the equation.

Also I must object and strenuously....just because a particular intellect has never been wrong is no guarantee that it will always be right. The moment I introduce a random into the situation...that perfect streak will break with in the first 3 times it is tested.
So it is said that if you know your enemies and know yourself, you can win a hundred battles without a single loss.
If you only know yourself, but not your opponent, you may win or may lose.
If you know neither yourself nor your enemy, you will always endanger yourself.
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Re: Crazy Thought Experiment/Logic Problem

Postby knightkrawler » Friday July 1st, 2016 11:36am

cynthialee wrote:just because a particular intellect has never been wrong is no guarantee that it will always be right.


That might be the key...
It's a scientific theory that we take for granted although it isn't. Anything empirical can never be verified to hold truth in future instances.
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Re: Crazy Thought Experiment/Logic Problem

Postby Anderas » Friday July 1st, 2016 12:24pm

If that supercomputer is able to run a complete simulation of your life, it is able to simulate your very personality and can see to the very detail what your digital twin thinks.
If you have a expressively random character, like Cynthia seems to have, the computer will know that the prediction is only 70% exact... don't know if it helps him, though. :)


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Re: Crazy Thought Experiment/Logic Problem

Postby Gold Bearer » Friday July 1st, 2016 1:30pm

Goblin-King wrote:
Gold Bearer wrote:Why is nobody getting this? :)

Two boxes of money and nobody can see the logic of taking both? :shock:

Maybe you are not explaining the scenario clearly enough.
It seems not.

Goblin-King wrote:So okay... I'm in the first episode of the gameshow ever.
The host is about to explain the audience and me the rules. What exactly does the host tell me?
'Congratulations on making it to the final round Mr King. In front of you are two boxes. Box A contains 1000 galactic space credits, box B either contains 100 or 1,000,000 galactic space credits. You can have both boxes or just box B, but there's a catch. Goldy, our super intelligent behavioural prediction quantum computer program that's never been wrong, has predicted what you will decide based on the information I'm about give you. If it predicted that you would take both boxes then box B contains only 100 galactic space credits but if it predicted that you would choose to take only box B then box B contains 1,000,000 credits. Would you like to take both boxes or just box B?'

Goblin-King wrote:To me it seems the only reason to take both boxes ever would be if you REALLY needed 1.001.000 British Pounds.
They'll probably be worth 5 Euros by then.

Count Mohawk wrote:I just realized that Gold Bearer's question gives you the box with potentially one million galactic credits whether you take one box or two, whereas when I first read it I thought he meant you could take either just the box with 1,000 or both boxes.
Naturally, the choice between 1,000 or 1,100 / 1,001,000 is much more interesting than the choice between 1,000,000 or 1,100 / 1,001,000.
It's a choice between 1,100 / 1,001,000 or 100 / 1,000,000 but if the computer's right it's a choice between 1,100 or 1,000,000.

Count Mohawk wrote:Although, if you assume the omniscient computer is inherently malevolent, then the best choice will always be to take both boxes, as an omniscient computer that also hates you would never put 1,000,000 credits into the box beforehand.
It's not malevolent or benevolent, it's entirely impartial.

knightkrawler wrote:1) I assume I'm told what A contains and what B might contain.
Yes.

knightkrawler wrote:2) I assume I'm also told that that program has already worked out what I'm gonna choose.
Yes.

knightkrawler wrote:I thereby assume that it has worked out that I'm the kind of guy choosing B because of point 1, so there's 1,000,000 galactic credits in it.
You don't know until you've made your choice.

cynthialee wrote:I can always find a way to randomize as far as my perception is concerned.
I may decide to look at the tiny hair on my finger and if it is odd I choose one way or if it is even I choose the other. Maybe I make the choice based on what is the color of the hosts eyes, if one color I choose one way and if another color I go with the other option.
I can always find a way to bring random into the equation.

Also I must object and strenuously....just because a particular intellect has never been wrong is no guarantee that it will always be right. The moment I introduce a random into the situation...that perfect streak will break with in the first 3 times it is tested.
For the sake of this you're unable to make a random choice. There's no such thing as random anyway. When you roll a dice the outcome is determined by the inertia, angle and spin of the though. You're put in sensory isolation if you like so there's no way of randomising it, but that's not really necessary because it's a highly advanced quantum super computer that will have worked out what 'random' criteria you will use it worked out the result because it knows the colour of the host's eyes, etc.


This gets weirder the more you think about it. Does quickly and decisively choosing only box B increase the chances of getting the one million?
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Re: Crazy Thought Experiment/Logic Problem

Postby Anderas » Friday July 1st, 2016 2:54pm

If I am told all this, there is really no choice but to take the Million only. No way I risk the million chinocolombian Pesos for a thousand more.

Of course they would simulate me before and then don't invite me because of that. They would invite only people they believe who take the wrong choice. That makes quota because everybody would sit in his full sensory tv and laugh.


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Re: Crazy Thought Experiment/Logic Problem

Postby Gold Bearer » Friday July 1st, 2016 3:22pm

Anderas wrote:If I am told all this, there is really no choice but to take the Million only. No way I risk the million chinocolombian Pesos for a thousand more.
But then you might only get 100, if the computer is wrong.

Anderas wrote:Of course they would simulate me before and then don't invite me because of that. They would invite only people they believe who take the wrong choice. That makes quota because everybody would sit in his full sensory tv and laugh.
Let's say the people chosen aren't profiled before hand then. The computer bases its prediction on how the contestants behaved in the previous rounds.

There's two boxes if front of you and the amount in box B doesn't change once you've been given the choice but you think you'd be better off not taking both boxes? Interesting.
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Re: Crazy Thought Experiment/Logic Problem

Postby whitebeard » Friday July 1st, 2016 7:37pm

Gold Bearer wrote:In the distant future somebody puts two boxes in front of you (you're on a gameshow if you like). Box A contains one thousand galactic credits, box B either contains one hundred or one million galactic credits. You have two choices, you can have both boxes or just box B, but there's a catch. An advanced behavioural prediction computer program that's never been wrong has worked out what option you're going to choose. If it worked out that you were going to take both boxes then box B contains one hundred galactic credits, if it worked out that you were only going to take ox B then box B contains one million galactic credits.

A = 1000
B = 100 or 1,000,000

Both or just B? Decide! :)

This cuts right to the heart of how you believe the universe works.


Not sure this has anything to do with "the universe." The computer has never been wrong... Let's assume that means it has played this games thousands or millions of times before and at least one of those people is as smart / clever as yourself and still NEVER been wrong. Sure, it *could* be wrong but those odds don't look very good. Take box B you dolt! :lol:


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Re: Crazy Thought Experiment/Logic Problem

Postby whitebeard » Friday July 1st, 2016 7:49pm

How about this one. I have a device, a quantum device, or whatever. If I query it, it tells me its state at a future time.

So I use this device as a burglar alarm which goes off 6 hours in advance of a break-in. One day I get the alarm, so I call the police and we plan to apprehend the intruder BEFORE anyone trips the device (perhaps it is in the next room or inside the safe). Is this a problem? How reliable is this device if this is my plan every time it goes off?


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Re: Crazy Thought Experiment/Logic Problem

Postby Gold Bearer » Friday July 1st, 2016 8:24pm

Another weird aspect is that if you believe that you aren't capable of outsmarting the computer then it would make sense to only have box B but if you think you can outsmart it then you should pick both and be resigned to getting 1,100 galactic space credits.

whitebeard wrote:Not sure this has anything to do with "the universe."
It depends on how you interpret the uncertainty principle, whether you believe Schrödinger's cat (google it if you don't know what that is) is both alive and dead. If you don't think that's possible then you believe that the universe is deterministic and there can only be one option, take both boxes. You've got two boxes in front of you both with money in and your choices are to take one or both so the computer is irrelevant because your decision can't have any effect on the amount of money in box B and you should take both. If on the other hand you believe that the cat is in a superposition of states until it's forced into one or the other then then decision you make can and will effect the amount of money in the boxes and you should definitely pick only box B.

So if you believe you'll get the million then you will, and if you believe you won't then you won't. So you should force yourself to believe and you can then you'll get the million, so your belief directly affects reality. :)

I love this kind of stuff, anything that forces you to think differently. I can just feel my brain carving out new pathways.

whitebeard wrote:How about this one. I have a device, a quantum device, or whatever. If I query it, it tells me its state at a future time.

So I use this device as a burglar alarm which goes off 6 hours in advance of a break-in. One day I get the alarm, so I call the police and we plan to apprehend the intruder BEFORE anyone trips the device (perhaps it is in the next room or inside the safe). Is this a problem? How reliable is this device if this is my plan every time it goes off?
That's a good one. If it works then you won't need it because it will never go off. :) It won't be possible for a burglar to break in once it's set up but what's actually stopping them?
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