Well, after all that, I decided against spray-painting the figure and instead decided to challenge myself by attempting a sky blue monochromatic paint scheme on the figure.
Picked up some Reaper MSP Sky Blue, looked like a pretty decent match for the HeroQuest expansion blue figures...
Base-coat on our girl here:
Looking real dark after the black wash. I had to take a deep breath and remind myself that she wasn't yet finished at this point:
A layer of sky blue drybrush highlights, followed by a layer of 2-part-sky-blue-to-1-part-white drybrush highlights, and voila!
Here's a fun little comparison shot. The original male Elf and my modified female Elf against the Frozen Horror! I guess it's not a 100% color match, but I'm very happy with how it turned out.